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Author Topic: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user  (Read 56594 times)

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Offline caterpillar

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #40 on: February 26, 2010, 05:22:49 PM »
I use speedlights 99% of the time. I also shoot outdoors and rarely on a controlled environment.

A stop improvement 1/250 to 1/500 over the sync speed will allow me these one of these options

1. use 1 stop less flash power when going against the ambient
2. allow me to open up the aperture 1 more stop (more creative control of DOF)
3. assuming I did a balanced exposure (ambient and flash lit) at let's say f3.5 @ 1/250s , I could underexpose the ambient by a stop without changing the DOF .

now by going PC cord all the way, another stop (1/1000s) can be easily achieved.

Nikon does have FP Sync (equivalent to high speed sync) support with d200 / d80 series onwards. However too much flash power is lost when FP Sync is enabled. With the limited powers of speedlights, this is quite an issue. Another thing is that studio strobes are not FP Sync capable... but I don't use studio strobes yet.

Yes it never occurred to me that this feature is inherent to the CCD sensor only. I really wish they do develop some way to allow this in the future.

 Mark, I found this at dpreview as I was researching for a response in a another video site. The author is Joseph W. Very smart man. Inventor/innovator and historian (particularly of technology). We've sparred before in dpreview (makes you sharp in logic and reasoning and you learn to cut the BS when you argue ;D ). Anyway, here are more of his comments about the D70 and why likely Nikon abandoned it, and Canon is not going to go for it.

I had an electronic shutter camera for a while, a Nikon D70. It still used a mechanical shutter as a "light blind", but the exposure was entirely governed by an electronic shutter in the sensor. This gave you some great features:

    *

      1/500 sec x-sync with Nikon TTL, 1/8000 sec sync with a fast enough manual flash
    *

      1/8000 sec max shutter speed, in a cheap camera.

But it caused two problems

    *

      The electronic shutter used, literally, half the space in each pixel. So you had half the light gathering ability of a camera with the same MP count and the same sensor size. More aggressive microlenses would have boosted the sensitivity, but at the expense of making wide angle lenses work poorly (a reason you probably won't see this in an EVIL camera). Dynamic range also suffered.
    *

      The shutter had a "running time" of about 10mS (1/100 sec). So, that meant there was always 1/100 sec of light falling on the sensor before the entire sensor was uncovered and it could open its electronic shutter, and 1/100 sec of light falling on the sensor after it closed its electronic shutter before the mechanical shutter was fully closed. And even that little 1/100 sec is a lot of light. Figure that on a 1/4000 sec exposure, the sensor had to resist an "overload" accumulation of light for 1/100 sec, 40x the length of the actual exposure. So, basically, it was very susceptible to overloads, a small, bright reflection would "bloom" into a line all the way across the image. And sunsets were near impossible.


  In short, the d70 was an electronic shutter hence it's ability to hit 1/500. But it has its drawbacks and side effects. Drawbacks that were more trouble that its worth. I suppose you really have to work around all other avenues to get your faster shutter speed. I thought of you maybe using a ND filter if you just want to open up your aperture. In that way, maybe you can dispense with the faster shutter speed but achieve your goals.  ;)

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #40 on: February 26, 2010, 05:22:49 PM »

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #41 on: February 26, 2010, 05:31:21 PM »
A very useful guide Mel. I just wish it came out before I upgraded.

 Ron, well, I see you have a 7D. That is a milestone camera right there! You're safe.

  As far as stills go, we've matured. There's very little maneuver room to improve. Maybe if they come up with a new sensor that is radical in design, yes, you can budge. But as for now, we'll just push the envelop/curve further with backlit sensors, etc. I won't be surprised of a 20mp aps-c sensor as clean as today's 18mp! Then we'll just make the AF better, maybe do something else.

  But in video, hilaw na hilaw pa!  ::) :P  Sobra!  If your 7D is going be obsolete, it's not likely in the stills dept. You'll crave for the next model simply because the video or the use of video is better! And that is my predicament now!

   I know that though the 550d is good already, I know I want an articulating screen, a decently fast AF in contrast detect, some sort of peaking at least if no AF, maybe a vectorscope rather than a histogram, and the ability to change the audio gain!

 Doon ka lang papatayin ng future cameras!

  Ang isa pa, the rise of the EVIL/MILC/LIVE cameras, with global shutters, and curved sensors! And even 3D MILC cameras! Kaya talagang dapat mautak ka sa pagbili at handa kang maghintay or skip generations, otherwise, tuwing may bago, bili ka ng bili!  ::)


« Last Edit: February 26, 2010, 05:34:27 PM by caterpillar »
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Offline ronaldmd

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #42 on: February 26, 2010, 05:36:11 PM »
Thanks Mel. That is actually my problem. I'm a sucker for upgrades. Once I see something I like, I get it! I hope that ends for now till the next milestone camera.

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #43 on: February 26, 2010, 05:44:16 PM »
Thanks Mel. That is actually my problem. I'm a sucker for upgrades. Once I see something I like, I get it! I hope that ends for now till the next milestone camera.

  Actually, the camera need not be a milestone. If you space your upgrades well, say 2-3 releases, then the new one will look like a big upgrade! In my case, 400d-450d-500d -> 550d, that's 3 generations! Good upgrade.

  The problem is, I know the 600d is going to make me cry!  :o :P I know it will have an articulating screen!  ::)

   I also know that the future is not DSLRs!  :o

   But I know that the window for DSLR is another 10-12 years only.

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #44 on: February 26, 2010, 06:49:31 PM »
Great guide!

  I know that though the 550d is good already, I know I want an articulating screen, a decently fast AF in contrast detect, some sort of peaking at least if no AF, maybe a vectorscope rather than a histogram, and the ability to change the audio gain!

It's reported that 5D MKII Firware update is comnig out soon and one of the update will be sound level control (64 levels). So most likely future model is going to have this feature.


Just want to add my observation. From a business point of view, camera manufacturers basically need to find new innovation/improvement to be able to sell new cameras, equipments. But with each innovation there comes to a point where each succeeding improvement on that technology becomes less and less significant. I feel that in term of stills, it's at that point already. Like when they announce the 550D everybody is raving about the video improvements, no one cared about the improvement in stills like the added metering zones, the increase megapixel etc. Canon knows it and will probably concentrate more on improving the video technology.

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #45 on: February 26, 2010, 06:58:39 PM »
Mark, I found this at dpreview as I was researching for a response in a another video site.

- snip -


many thanks for digging this up. While I do know that the sensor in the d70/d50/d40 was the last one with the electronic shutter, this clearly explains why it was abandoned in the first place.


 In short, the d70 was an electronic shutter hence it's ability to hit 1/500. But it has its drawbacks and side effects. Drawbacks that were more trouble that its worth. I suppose you really have to work around all other avenues to get your faster shutter speed. I thought of you maybe using a ND filter if you just want to open up your aperture. In that way, maybe you can dispense with the faster shutter speed but achieve your goals.  ;)



Yes, I've been doing these to control the shutter speed, ND's, CPLs, and lower ISO to be able to open up the aperture. However any stops of light lost via the NDs / CPLs / ISO... etc needs to be countered with additional flash power ...

In the end, sooner or later I will have to get a body with a 1/250s xsync (not 1/200 !!) and move on.

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #46 on: February 26, 2010, 07:29:51 PM »
   I also know that the future is not DSLRs!  :o

   But I know that the window for DSLR is another 10-12 years only.


video may be ? current 4k incarnations are already roughly 12 megapixels and are good enough for magazine covers. 8k prototypes are going to be at around 32 megapixels

These will be more common in the future.

ESQUIRE - http://www.esquire.com/the-side/video/megan-fox-images-0609
TIME - http://www.freshdv.com/2009/11/red-one-from-hell.html

red is also about to churn out 5k / 6k cameras with Nikon / Canon lens mounts. Think 10fps DSLR is fast ? These monsters are running at 30fps ... not in 1080p ... but at full 5k / 6k resolutions.

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #47 on: February 26, 2010, 07:39:31 PM »
Great guide!

It's reported that 5D MKII Firware update is comnig out soon and one of the update will be sound level control (64 levels). So most likely future model is going to have this feature.


Just want to add my observation. From a business point of view, camera manufacturers basically need to find new innovation/improvement to be able to sell new cameras, equipments. But with each innovation there comes to a point where each succeeding improvement on that technology becomes less and less significant. I feel that in term of stills, it's at that point already. Like when they announce the 550D everybody is raving about the video improvements, no one cared about the improvement in stills like the added metering zones, the increase megapixel etc. Canon knows it and will probably concentrate more on improving the video technology.



  To TMer's that's called the Technology S-curve. A sacred symbol that symbolizes and summarizes MOT or TM. It's like a letter S slanting to the right. Once it reaches to the apex, it slowly goes down till a new S curves forms from another line outside the current S curve. That's when a new technology is adopted or takes over.

  The problem w/c Canon and the rest, especially who are invested in video like Panasonic, and Sony will have to reckon is - how in the hell are we going to reconcile our product lines in video? In fact, I am surprised why nobody has asked this before or mentioned it -- The Emperor is not wearing clothes!

  What I mean is this:



 This is the Sony Cinealta F900. It's a 3 x 2/3" sensor. It is used in making films. It costs U$81k!! :(




  Then there's a single sensor about the size of super35mm, the RED One. It costs U$17k and at around U$40k you're basically set. It has a larger sensor that the Sony CineAlta and even cheaper by 50$ and has a more modern and digital workflow!




  Here's the latest, just came out Sony NX5, a 3 x 1/3" avchd tapeless camera costing U$4,000.


 And of course, we know of the 35mm 5d mk2 with video and the 7D/550d with an aps-c sensor w/c is still larger than the CineAlta or the NX5 and the price is outrageously low! Of course, the codec is not as robust as RED, but if we are only to talk about basic hardware, the emperor is not wearing clothes because in essence, the 550d at U$800 is a steal.

 The question is, why not build a proper video camera using an aps-c sensor with all the features of video and even on a limited zoom range? Because the sensor is large (eg. 18-200mm or 28-320mm equiv 35FF FOV) let the zoom be reasonable, but give it the complete video works (peaking, zebra, manual gain control on audio, zoom rocker switches, ND fliters built-in, etc. etc. Would it cost U$4,000? I doubt it. Even if it did, mind you this is a large sensor compared to the puny 1/3" sensorof the NX5!

  Even adding to insult is that the Panasonic GH1 with a 14-140mm lens is just U$1,300 now! The GH1 is a 4/3 sized sensor and is fairly close in size to aps-c.  Again, the codec may not be mature yet, and so with the other feature set, but in hardware alone, we see that it seems that the true cost of making a proper video camera should be astronomical! All these U$3k-10k 1/3" sensors start looking expensive?

  I will not go into the details of costing, however, on the surface, I'm sure you can see something is wrong! The price gap is simply too great! Why is that?

  Thus eventually the problem is how far are they going to take the video of dslrs or even MILC cameras so that it won't threaten the video division of their respective companies? Or will they simply revamp the video and fold it into something else. The issue of convergence is going to reveal some telling issues!  >:( :o

  And if you think video isn't important, know that the 5d was a failure. That is why it is not in my milestone. But the 5d mk-2 wasn't. It's not the 23mp that made it a success. It was always out of stock before because of the brisk sales. It was the video. Mind you, the 5d mk-2 wasn't cheap.  :o

   Sooner or later, the videocams and the stills are going to be on a head on collision. The camera we will be buying will not be a stills with video or a videocam that can do stills as a side job. This is when the convergence is complete.


  
« Last Edit: February 26, 2010, 07:49:55 PM by caterpillar »
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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #48 on: February 26, 2010, 07:48:10 PM »
video may be ? current 4k incarnations are already roughly 12 megapixels and are good enough for magazine covers. 8k prototypes are going to be at around 32 megapixels

These will be more common in the future.

ESQUIRE - http://www.esquire.com/the-side/video/megan-fox-images-0609
TIME - http://www.freshdv.com/2009/11/red-one-from-hell.html

red is also about to churn out 5k / 6k cameras with Nikon / Canon lens mounts. Think 10fps DSLR is fast ? These monsters are running at 30fps ... not in 1080p ... but at full 5k / 6k resolutions.



  I see the future is not RED. RED will open doors and will open possibilities, but it will not be the primary tool of the common masses. They will not be the one to shape it or eventually lead it.

  We also don't need 4k. There are so many ancillary and related technologies and products needed to make 4k viable. How will you process it? How will you display it? What is the medium of storage and transport? So many issues, and yet a 2-3 year old 12mp D90 has no problems of delivering now simply because it is not 4k.

  And if you think 30fps is fast, Panasonic and Sanyo will likely give you 1080p with 250-500fps in less than 3 years. And its in a price you can afford. You don't need 4k, 5k, or 6k. This is why revolutions aren't always game changing.

   You have a better chance of seeing, buying and using a 3D 1080p digicam/videocam than a owning and using a 4k camera. You have a better chance of showing a 3D video that you made yourself in about 1-3 years, than owning a RED camera. And it just be the cost that's the barrier.

 
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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #49 on: February 28, 2010, 09:19:33 PM »
Excellent reading, Mel. Really gives you a bird's eye view regarding how you should decide when considering buying a new camera. I still have my ever dependable 400D but I have upgraded to a 5DMkII. Now I use the new camera more often and I still have the prime EF lenses I got.

Those prime EF lenses are really proving their worth to me to the extent that I use them if I want to make sure that I get really sharp shots. My UWA 10-22mm (buti na lang may nagregalo) is still a very good and useful lens (justifies my keeping the 400D).

These two bodies are being used as often as possible (the extra light body of the 400D makes it easy to bring along). Even if I have been using them for sometime, I still discover some function that comes in handy time and again. Which proves that with all the different functions of these cameras, if is nearly impossible to master all of them and we end up using just a fraction of all of these functions.

In the end, I don't think I will be upgrading any time soon because I think the newer cameras have to show something significantly different before I can justify the need (or the want) to buy another body. 

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #50 on: February 28, 2010, 09:32:57 PM »
Excellent reading, Mel. Really gives you a bird's eye view regarding how you should decide when considering buying a new camera. I still have my ever dependable 400D but I have upgraded to a 5DMkII. Now I use the new camera more often and I still have the prime EF lenses I got.

Those prime EF lenses are really proving their worth to me to the extent that I use them if I want to make sure that I get really sharp shots. My UWA 10-22mm (buti na lang may nagregalo) is still a very good and useful lens (justifies my keeping the 400D).

These two bodies are being used as often as possible (the extra light body of the 400D makes it easy to bring along). Even if I have been using them for sometime, I still discover some function that comes in handy time and again. Which proves that with all the different functions of these cameras, if is nearly impossible to master all of them and we end up using just a fraction of all of these functions.

In the end, I don't think I will be upgrading any time soon because I think the newer cameras have to show something significantly different before I can justify the need (or the want) to buy another body. 

  Bong, nice to read from you again!  :D

  With your 5d mk-2, you will see those primes earn their keep. How's the 100 f2 usm on the 5d? Sharp, eh?

  The 10-22 ef-s can be modified to run in the 5d or a 35FF with no danger. To be safe, it can be used as a 14-22mm lens. Same aperture readings.

  The 400d is a good camera. I may sell mine not because I am unhappy with it, but because I need the video of the 550d. No point now in having 3 dslrs, right?

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #51 on: March 01, 2010, 10:28:46 PM »
here is an upgrade path for nikon users

from Thom Hogan
http://www.bythom.com/upgradepath.htm

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #52 on: March 02, 2010, 11:49:56 AM »
@Chaloy - Thanks for the link to Thom Hogan. Looks like Thom is very sensible and logical in his upgrades too! Nice to know!  ;)


  I am posting this as additional things to think about for the would-be upgrader. I thought of these things as when I posted my 400d for sale  in the FS section, it made me reflect on pricing and depreciation of equipment.

  If you are upgrading from a lower end model, say a 400d (like me) or a xxxD class, as compared to a 40d, the loss you will be taking will likely be less when you start disposing of your old gear. Let's take a look at some examples.

  The 40d eventually settled to around P55k when it was the current model for the xxD line. It usually is the base price for this class after the price settles down about 6 or so months after it is introduced in the market.  The 400d/450d or any xxxD line is always in the P45-48k line when new for the kit, and it settles to around P41-42k after 6-8 months of intro to the market. The body only is probably about P4k less than the kit, so that's about P38k-ish for the xxxD body.

  If we follow the update cycle you should consider, as what Thom Hogan for Nikon's also recommend, you skip 1 generation if you're smart and want to see palpable benefits. Or as I put it,  two gens to upgrade, meaning skip one and get the next one w/c is the 2nd gen. It's the same thing just said in another way.

  Now we focus on how much you've really lost in the ugpgrade process. That xxD body after 3 years will likely be cut almost in half from the original price. Actually, it's best to look at it not in years but in terms of models released as sometimes, the 18-month cycle is not followed anymore. Anyway, that 40d now is just P33k-35k body only from the 55k it once was. That's P20k depreciation. If the 60d had been announced already, that 40d will drop to 28-30k easily. That's about 25-27k drop.

  A 450d used now is around P28k give or take. Body only. It was about P40k when the dust settled but when it was still current. The 500d is the same today. It's still in the P41k-ish price range (give or take P5k). No different really when the 450d or 400d was current. 41k-28k is P13k difference.

   ON a 3 year spread use, it's like renting your 450d for P4,300/year and the 40d, if you used it the same time period of 3 years is P6,666/year.

  I remember the 5D mk-1 costing P205k for about 1 year or more as it settled there. Now, you can get a used one about P55k. That's a whopping P150k rental fee. Assuming you got that 2005 or early 2006, it means your yearly rental fee for the 5D mk-1 is P33,333 per year on a 4.5 year ownership and after the price has settled down!!!  ::) :o

  As you can see, if you get a higher end model you are going to be "renting" your gear for a higher price per time period than had you gotten the lower end or lower class model.

  If you got a 1d mk-3 about 3 years ago, for around P220k (I am guessing on the price but it's close), the your yearly "rental" for this gear is P73,333/year!

    Again, if you are a pro and needs constant update, independently wealthy, or can afford it, these things don't apply to you.  ;) If you are a pro who charges a lot for his services, then amortizing for these expenses are not as painful and often they are paid of with a couple or few jobs. That is why, it makes sense for you to get the best you can get if you are on that bracket.

  Of course this series is not about those who can afford it easily. This is for those who need to nurse their wallets and makes sure they get a smart strategy for upgrading!  ;)

   What these examples show  are the ff:

   - The cost of "renting" your camera is higher on higher end and higher priced models

   - That the depreciation of the gear is as deep and more felt with the more expensive cameras. The discounts you have to apply will be greater if you want to get rid of them

   - You take a lesser hit on the lower end models

   What these facts teach us is that IF you want to get a higher end model, you better be sure to keep it a short time and let go of it in 1-1.5 years so that the amortization or "rental fee" is less; or you better think of keeping this model for a long time and just use it and milk it for what it's worth because you really will be selling it for a big loss. Typically 5-7 years because for sure, it's value would have dropped so low that you are taking a big hit after 3-5 years, maybe just 1/4 of its original price!  :o

   You will notice that the 35FF bodies and 1.3x crop of the 1D mk-x series take a lot of wind from your sails in terms of how much you will lose! Therefore, if you go to this class, make sure that you know your reasons for getting them. And jump ship asap if you don't like them. 1-1.5 years is the best time frame where you can still take a lot from the original price.

  But know also that the higher end and more expensive models also lessens the number of people who can afford that price bracket. It's simple to think that there are more people who can afford P25-35k for something, even if it is a lower model, than something that is worth P55k or even much less P100k. so, the speed or chances of you selling your older units is more problematical. If the model has less than stellar reputation, you may even have a hard time getting a good price for it.

   In summary, if you are getting a higher priced model think long and hard before plunking on it. If it is used, like a 5d mk-I, well, you're already paying a highly discounted price. But if you are buying brand new, depreciation is really very high, so follow the strategy mentioned here. ;)  Here's a scenario you can play with your pen and paper or on your head - If you bought a 5d mk-2 now for P118k brand new, how much will be losing to sell it 3 years from now?

  Again, I'm not saying you should not get the camera body you want. What I'm saying is you should know the cost of what you are getting! Think of it as your yearly rental to use the equipment based on how much you were able to sell it with the balance of the original price taken into account.


« Last Edit: March 02, 2010, 11:54:29 AM by caterpillar »
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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #53 on: March 02, 2010, 12:06:53 PM »
  The obvious question now is - what of the 7D?

   The 7d will eventually settle down to P78k give or take. It dances with the nikon D300s price, so if the Nikon goes down, the 7D will try to stick very near it.

  But assuming on a 78k after 6 months after intro, when the dust has settled, by 2012 or late 2011, we'll see a 7D mk-2 for roughly the same price - U$1,700. So expect the early birds to pay again the premium of P90k.

  But what we are interested is how much now would a 7D owner sell his mk-1 to get the mk-2. I think the 7D will settle down to P60k, maybe P65k eventually as used. But let's you got one now for P85k, then you are going to lose P25-20k for the mk-1 when you want to get rid of it. Two years is like renting the 7D for P10k/year for 2 years.

  The question now for you is, is this rental fee acceptable to you? Of course, in the previous post, I've already mentioned that if you go 5d or 1d, it bleeds you on your yearly rental fee if you decide to sell your equipment. So, you were forewarned!

  The 7D upgrade may seem the same as the the lower end models. To that degree, the 7D looks on even keel as most xxD body upgrades. But do not forget that the 7D is about P30k more expensive than the current 50d. So, even if your yearly rental fee is the same, your initial acquisition cost is higher. That is something you should also consider. But if the feature set of the 7D is what you need, then you at least have the comfort that if you can spring for its initial price then its yearly rental fee is the same or close to a xxD class body.

  Upgrading is inevitable for all of us. Even a die-hard like me, while have to let go of gear one time or the other. Technology improves bodies and their benefits are noticeble if you skip a model/generation or two (better two!). You can only hold off the inevitable. Even if you are perfectly happy with your 350d or 20d (like me), one time, it will conk out and maybe the cost of fixing it would not be worth it. It will be time to upgrade it anyway.

  Regardless, it pays to know not just the features of the camera you will be upgraing, but also the price of upgrading.  ;D

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Offline nitski

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #54 on: March 02, 2010, 12:59:39 PM »
nice and informative guide. keep it up...

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The next disruptive product/camera
« Reply #55 on: March 02, 2010, 02:56:28 PM »
  Some of you have heard of some of these terms:

   - Paradigm shift
   - Inflection Point
   - Disruptive Technology

   There are other terms but they elude me at this time. And although they may seem the same thing, they are different to a degree. But usually, the effect is the same. Regardless of the terms used, the effect is very much felt and it changes the the landscape significantly. I will not go into a discussion of what these terms mean. Let me just give an example of them that are familiar to you many:

  - the use of the plow
  - computers and consumer affordable computers
  - the introduction of telephones
  - the switch from film to digital
  
  There are many we can list, but lets not get carried away. :D  But to many who basically did not grow without them, it seems so common and unthinkable not to have these. The reason for mentioning paradigm shifts and disruptive technologies is that they have a bearing on when to buy certain stuff, and when to abandon certain things, or buying certain things knowing they have x no. of years left before they are literally obsolete.

   Certain technologies are still viable even if they are old. OLD doesn't mean obsolete or useless if their core technologies are not disruptive.  Lenses are example. They hold their value a long time. A 1987 50mm mk-1 is as sharp and useful 80%-90% of the time even if it is very old, if you can still find one. It's because advances in certain technologies take a long time and certain physical laws are harder to "break," or overcome, or leap frog. These same lenses, thank goodness for the foresight of Canon, can still be used today. Even those old Nikon Ai-s of the 70's and 80's can still be used today, sans AF, modern coatings and baffles, because as far as optical design and technologies goes, they do not change much.

  But certain technologies, even if only recent may be obsolete even before they have a long reign. Don't think because you are a young turk and didn't wake up to film, and is basking in the digital air that you won't get bitten by a disruptive technology! More than ever, product cycle times can be short and maybe even shorter is the technology life cycle by which these products stand by. This change to digital from film was won just about 5 years since it started. It was over 2 years after that. So in about 7 years, basically film is dead. It was that fast. It was faster than the decades that it took for 35mm as a format to gain the respect it deserved. It took at least 50 years for that. Then aps-c tried to make an inroad, but it failed. But aps-c basically won not in the film world but in digital. The victory is even doubted by many, and the nos of aps-c cameras outnumber 35mm sensor size by not just a factor of 10. More like a factor of 100! A safe guess is that a 5d mk-2 of about 4,000 units per month vs about 200,000 units per month for a single class like the xxxD line. If you really count the number of sensors, including for the xxxxD line, and the 7D, it's over 200k aps-c sensors a month versus around 4k give or take. And this has been going on for the past 5 years from a single vendor alone like Canon. Nikon-Sony produces as much sensors per month on their own line!  :o

  What I'm saying here is that the speed of change is very fast. Change is good if it is not disruptive. But when it's a game changer, and you are in the cusp of that change and you pick the wrong technology, you can be owning an expensive camera that won't cut it in 3 years after having paid a bundle for it!  ::)

   Video is such a game changer. Yeah, right, you say. We've had videocams since the late 1970's and were even "affordable" by the late 1980s and became commonplace in the latter half of 1990's to the present. So, what's new with video on a dslr? P&S have had it for at least 3 years. What makes video in these DSLR's special?

  The problem with dslr with video is that in time, we are going to see that the emperor is not wearing any clothes and if you just extrapolate a bit, you'll find that the DSLRs as DSLRs is simply so "old." DSLRs is just so wrong to put or implement video. The form factor is wrong, the controls are all wrong. The functions and tools are all wrong.  It isn't the just the age, here. It's the functionality. With video, the use of the OVF (Optical View Finder) slowly becomes a hindrance. LCD and display technologies are getting better so fast that in 5 years you'd ask yourself why you want an OVF anymore!  ::)

   Video is driving the ancilliary and complementary technologies to a drastic pace. The rapid growth of the m4/3 is not because of the move from 4/3 to m4/3. It's the same image circle. Same mount, same everything except for the flange distance. What made the m4/3 a success is the ability to put a lens in a rectangular body like a rangefinder, make it small because there is no mirror box, nor penta-mirror/prism in the way that keeps the size big. The EVF or LCD has taken its place.

  Now can it be done with aps-c sensors? Sure. Why not? If the Pentax dslr are any indicators we can go that small with dslrs. But if we can take away the mirror box and penta-prism/mirror that's a hefty size off the body! Suddenly,if you just use your common sense you ask, why do we need DSLRs anymore?

  But there is still a lot of battles to be won. Here are some problems still to be overcome if the MILC or EVIL camera is to be mainstream:



  - Fast AF in contrast detect (CD) or a new way to implement phase detect in a MILC. Or if a hybrid can be done with it.

  - Removing the mechanical shutter w/c translate to making a "Global Shutter" a reality. If this can be done, this means no more discussions of 3 fps vs 5fps, 6.3fps or 8fps or 10-12fps. There is no mechanical shutter that will be limited by physical limits if the sensor itself can blink on and off on its own! We will not be hindered by a 1/200-1/250 top flash sync. In an ironic twist or insulting sense of humor, we will see the end of people asking of when their shutter assy will fail!  ;D ::)  No more marketing hype and braggocio to say that my camera can has a 100,000 MTBF! Why? Because there is no longer any mechanical shutter!

  - Better DSP to haul off the massive data of the new or future sensors. We all know about sensors but we forget it's the Digic IV or Venus, or BionZ that completes the picture after the sensor. The DSP takes care of the mundane things that we often do not think about! DSPs take care of the talking to the lens on AF, telling the flash how much to strobe, noise reduction, extending dynamic range, conversion from raw to jpeg, exposure determination, even the speed to save the data to the CF! And remember that a great DSP is not just an engineering hardware miracle. It is really a show of software muscle and ingenuity!  ::)

  - Higher rez, faster response times, faster refresh rates, lower power consumption, more capabilities  LCDs at a lower cost. Since we will be removing the OVF, the EVF/LCD must step up the plate. The problem of cost, speed of update, etc will have to improve immensely, even as we increase the resolution of the LCD.


  When these basic technologies start appearing on LIVE/MILCs, start counting the clock to 5 years from hence because by the 5th year or even before that, DSLRs will be a footnote! The same freedom and liberating properties that digital gave film shooters, the MILC/EVIL/LIVE camera will do to DSLRs. We will see how silly and impractical DSLRs are compared to the MILCs. The GF1's, DP1s of today are the first tentative steps to this future.

 For now, you have been forewarned. Relax though, because you have at least 5 years, maybe 7 years to enjoy your D300s, or D3s, or the future 60d, future 600d or future 7D mk-2.  :D  As I write, Panasonic has shown as early as last year in the GH1 an AF that is a fast as PD in a CD camera! They are also probably near in making a breakthrough in Global Shutter in sensors. And they seem to have created DSPs that are very fast and can lower noise in images without quashing the details!  :o And Sony is pushing the boundaries too. Together with Samsung, they want to lead this new market that nobody seems to be aware of except the players themselves!

  Once you see any of these 4 technologies in a camera being sold, it's time to slow down the dslr purchases. It's time to monitor these new products because the beginning of the end might just have begun!  :o  These 4 technologies in a MILC, is the next disruptive product.  ;)

  

  
  
  

  
« Last Edit: March 02, 2010, 03:08:48 PM by caterpillar »
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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #56 on: March 02, 2010, 03:07:11 PM »
Excellent dissection of the subject matter Mel  ;D ... now you've got me thinking if I should buy my coveted 7D... *isip-isip*  ::)

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #57 on: March 02, 2010, 05:49:31 PM »
 Yes, Mel active again (walang pasyente ;-)
Regarding your query about the 100 f2, yes it is super sharp. Puts my 24-105 (which is a good L lens) to shame when shooting at their widest aperture. The 50 mm macro is also excellent when used with the FF camera. Sometimes it comes to a point wherein I don't know if I want the convenience of a zoom or the sharpness of a prime (tears me inside when choosing between the two types of lenses). Just for these points I touched on (which makes me really contended with my bodies), I think it will really be a long while before I change any of my body to an upgraded, technology-packed newer camera.

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #58 on: March 02, 2010, 11:26:17 PM »
Yes, Mel active again (walang pasyente ;-)
Regarding your query about the 100 f2, yes it is super sharp. Puts my 24-105 (which is a good L lens) to shame when shooting at their widest aperture. The 50 mm macro is also excellent when used with the FF camera. Sometimes it comes to a point wherein I don't know if I want the convenience of a zoom or the sharpness of a prime (tears me inside when choosing between the two types of lenses). Just for these points I touched on (which makes me really contended with my bodies), I think it will really be a long while before I change any of my body to an upgraded, technology-packed newer camera.

  Bong, I've always thought of you as a 35FF guy. It suits your temperament. Keep those lenses you have. They are good all around. If any, you may just need a 70-200 f2.8L or f4L either with IS. If you don't have that yet, maybe that's the only one you need. If I recall, I know you have a 70-200 f4L IS, right? If you do, then you're ok.

  I also don't think you are a 17-40L guy, or any wide angle lens. So, save your money.

  However, later on, when the MILC camera's make a good showing, I think you should have one if only to have something smaller and better than the 400d. Don't worry, it will still be a year or two off. The better MILCs will be coming 3rd or 4th quarter. Their impact will spill into 2011. If all goes well, Canon's hand will be forced and they'll have to consider coming out with their own in 2011.

  In short, you are basically set. You've got a solid lens and body lineup. Me? I'll keep the 20d till it breaks, and I'll still have it fixed. The 400d will have to go. Again, not that it is bad, but I really need a small camera on the xxxD line with video.  :D

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Re: A Guide for upgrading cameras for the Intermediate user
« Reply #59 on: March 03, 2010, 09:31:21 AM »
Regarding the shutter replacement, thanks for the tip, Mel!  I'll just wait for the 400D to break down.  Although I'm praying that it won't break too soon because I don't have the budget yet for a new body.

I'm not really into video yet so I'm not very excited with the 550D, if just for it's video capabilities.  I'm happy with a regular video cam to take vids of my baby.

Thanks again!
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